Geopolitics: Top Troublemakers Past Their Peak

While geopolitical tensions from China, Russia, and Iran are high, their combined economic weight is declining relative to the Global West. Berenberg argues that Western unity and continued support for Ukraine and NATO can effectively deter these fading autocracies.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The economic power of geopolitical challengers (China, Russia, Iran) is receding, with their combined global GDP share dropping from 20.7% in 2021 to 19% in 2025.
• 2.The Munich Security Conference highlights the need for the US and Europe to repair NATO cohesion, particularly as European defense spending rises.
• 3.China faces structural economic headwinds, including a demographic crisis (1.0 fertility rate) and a shift toward central ideological control over growth.

Table of Contents

• Geopolitics: top troublemakers past their peak
• A dangerous world
• US and Europe need to talk
• Causing trouble does not come cheap
• Waning economic clout
• Peak China
• Unsustainable adventurism
• Post-Munich webinar
• Disclaimer
• Remarks regarding foreign investors
• United Kingdom
• United States of America
• Copyright

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