Weekly Economic Commentary

The report highlights that receding oil prices have improved the economic outlook for New Zealand, leading to upgraded GDP forecasts and a less aggressive path for OCR rate hikes.

Key Takeaways

• 1.RBNZ is expected to scale back OCR hikes due to receding energy prices and improved inflation outlook.
• 2.GDP growth forecasts upgraded to 2.0% for 2026 and 2.9% for 2027 following the rapid easing of oil prices.
• 3.The OCR is expected to be left on hold at 2.25% in July, with hikes now projected for September and December.

Table of Contents

• Key views
• Westpac GDP nowcasts
• Key data and event outlook
• Chart of the week
• Fixed versus floating for mortgages
• Global wrap
• Financial markets wrap
• The week ahead
• Economic and financial forecasts
• Data calendar
• Contact

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