RBNZ May 2026 Monetary Policy Statement Preview

Westpac anticipates the RBNZ will hold the OCR steady in May 2026 but signal a more aggressive path toward a 3.2% terminal rate. Despite stalling growth, surging inflation fueled by the Iran war suggests a hawkish shift in policy communication.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The RBNZ is expected to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25%, though a vote for a 25bps hike to 2.5% is likely.
• 2.RBNZ is forecast to raise its terminal OCR estimate to approximately 3.2% due to rising inflation expectations.
• 3.Economic growth forecasts for 2026 are expected to be significantly downgraded from 2.8% to 1.8-2%.

Table of Contents

• Waiting for evidence
• RBNZ decision and communication
• Scenarios
• Kelly's take
• Appendix: Key developments since the February Monetary Policy Statement

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