UniCredit
June 4, 2026
The Warsh Fed
Market ReportEquitiesRates Govt BondsCommoditiesInformation TechnologyFinancials
UniCredit analyzes the implications of Kevin Warsh becoming Fed Chair and the ongoing Middle East conflict on global markets. The report favors emerging market assets while warning of increased central bank volatility and sustained energy-driven inflation.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Kevin Warsh assumes the Fed Chairmanship in a divisive political climate, advocating for forward-looking discretion over data-dependency.
- 2.The AI boom is currently viewed as an inflationary demand shock rather than a disinflationary supply shock due to massive infrastructure investment.
- 3.The ECB is expected to hike rates in June 2026, while the Fed is likely to remove its easing bias but may cut in December.
Table of Contents
- View from the CIOs
- Asset Allocation
- Geopolitical Update
- Focus 1: What will a Warsh Fed look like?
- Macro Stories
- Market Stories
- Equities
- Fixed Income
- Corporate credit
- FX
- Commodities
- Forecast Tables
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Authors
Manuela D'OnofrioEdoardo CampanellaFabio Petti
Securities
BTCSPXBrent CrudeEURUSD10Y US Treasury
Themes
Central Bank Credibility & IndependenceAI Infrastructure as an Inflationary ShockEnergy Geopolitics & Supply Chain Disruptions
Regions
North AmericaEuropeMiddle EastUnited StatesIranChina