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UniCredit

June 5, 2026

The Bottom Line

Weekly UpdateRates Govt BondsMacro Economic IndicatorsCommoditiesEnergy

UniCredit expects a 25bp rate hike from the ECB next week and rising US inflation driven by energy costs. Meanwhile, OPEC+ meetings and Bank of Canada policy decisions remain focal points for market participants.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on 11 June.
  • 2.US headline CPI is projected to rise to 4.1% year-on-year in May, driven primarily by petrol prices.
  • 3.OPEC+ is expected to continue incremental output increases, but supply chain issues make the market impact limited.

Table of Contents

  • The Bottom Line
  • ECB set to hike
  • TOP STORIES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
  • OPEC+: output increases likely to remain largely symbolic
  • Bank of Canada on hold with focus still on inflation and growth
  • QUOTE OF THE WEEK
  • WHAT WE ARE READING AND LISTENING TO
  • DATA AND EVENTS CALENDAR
  • FORECAST TABLES
  • IN CASE YOU MISSED IT THIS WEEK
  • Authors
  • Editors

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Authors

Tobias KellerRoberto MialichMarco ValliDaniel Vernazza

Securities

10y OAT

Themes

Inflationary pressure from energy pricesGeopolitical impact on supply chains

Regions

EuropeMiddle EastUnited StatesCanadaIran