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June 19, 2026

Iran Has Won So Far

Macro ThematicCommoditiesEnergy

The recent MoU between the US and Iran offers short-term relief for the global economy by reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, the deal heavily favors the Iranian regime, leaving long-term geopolitical risks and nuclear proliferation concerns largely unaddressed.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The MoU between the US and Iran provides short-term relief to the global economy via the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • 2.The agreement is viewed as a victory for Tehran, granting significant economic concessions without curbing regional proxy support or missile programs.
  • 3.Long-term risks persist as Iran may use funds to consolidate power, and maritime traffic is unlikely to reach pre-war levels due to structural diversification by importers.

Table of Contents

  • THE NOISE
  • AND THE SIGNAL

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Authors

Eduardo CampanellaFrancesco Maria Di Bella

Securities

Brent Crude Oil

Themes

Geopolitical StabilizationEnergy Security

Regions

Middle EastUnited StatesIranIsrael