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July 2, 2026

The Week Ahead: Relative Value Opportunities Amid Near-term USD Strength

Weekly UpdateCommoditiesFXOther

This report outlines investment strategies for Forex and Commodities, anticipating a neutral Fed policy path that will ultimately weaken the USD. It highlights yield pickup opportunities in various currency pairs including AUDNZD, EURSEK, and USDJPY.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Fed policy rates expected to remain unchanged this year, challenging market tightening expectations and supporting a medium-term USD pullback.
  • 2.RBNZ is expected to deliver a 25bps rate hike in the upcoming meeting, given strong GDP data and inflationary pressure.

Table of Contents

  • The week ahead: Relative value opportunities amid near-term USD strength
  • Yield pickup opportunities of the week
  • Comments on select currencies and commodities
  • Data calendar

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Authors

Teck Leng TanDominic SchniderConstantin BolzClémence DumoncelTilmann KolbGiovanni StaunovoPietro SantinKayden Lee

Securities

AUDNZDEURSEKUSDJPY

Themes

Fed Policy OutlookGeopolitical TensionUSD Strength and Reversal

Regions

GlobalUnited StatesNew ZealandSweden