UBS
July 2, 2026
The Week Ahead: Relative Value Opportunities Amid Near-term USD Strength
Weekly UpdateCommoditiesFXOther
This report outlines investment strategies for Forex and Commodities, anticipating a neutral Fed policy path that will ultimately weaken the USD. It highlights yield pickup opportunities in various currency pairs including AUDNZD, EURSEK, and USDJPY.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Fed policy rates expected to remain unchanged this year, challenging market tightening expectations and supporting a medium-term USD pullback.
- 2.RBNZ is expected to deliver a 25bps rate hike in the upcoming meeting, given strong GDP data and inflationary pressure.
Table of Contents
- The week ahead: Relative value opportunities amid near-term USD strength
- Yield pickup opportunities of the week
- Comments on select currencies and commodities
- Data calendar
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Authors
Teck Leng TanDominic SchniderConstantin BolzClémence DumoncelTilmann KolbGiovanni StaunovoPietro SantinKayden Lee
Securities
AUDNZDEURSEKUSDJPY
Themes
Fed Policy OutlookGeopolitical TensionUSD Strength and Reversal
Regions
GlobalUnited StatesNew ZealandSweden
