US Economics Weekly

The report highlights an 'uneven' US economy where AI-related investment masks decline in other sectors. It also notes looming social security insolvency and analyzes recent Fed and Supreme Court actions.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The US economy is currently 'uneven', characterized by strong AI/tech-related investment and wealth creation, while other sectors of the economy are declining.
• 2.Social Security insolvency is looming, with the OASI Trust Fund projected to be depleted by the end of 2032, necessitating significant future policy changes.
• 3.The June employment report showed job gains slowing to 57K, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% amidst a sharp, unusual decline in labor force participation.

Table of Contents

• Economic Comment: uneven? AI vs everything else
• Social security bust looms
• ICYMI: inflation news, on net lower
• Court decides on Cook and the Fed itself
• Leading indicator incremental improvement
• Week in Review: a very busy week for macro
• Fedspeak: Warsh at Sintra
• June employment report: not bad
• Economic Forecast Table
• Week(s) Ahead: minutes, CPI & Warsh

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