Have A Very Productive 4th Of July

This report argues that AI-driven productivity gains are a key theme for the second half of 2026. The author suggests these gains may provide a disinflationary tailwind that influences future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

Key Takeaways

• 1.AI-driven productivity growth is identified as a critical factor that could lead to medium-term disinflation and influence Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
• 2.Market concern regarding AI-related capital expenditure continues, with the debate centered on whether chip demand is structural or cyclical.

Table of Contents

• Have a very productive 4th of July!
• Blog
• Global asset class preferences definitions
• Appendix
• Risk information

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