Global Macro Monthly

The global economy remains in a high-pressure, revenue-driven expansion phase led by the US, despite persistent inflationary shocks. While labor markets are showing marginal softening, business investment remains robust, prompting central banks to maintain or pursue higher rate paths.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The global economy persists in a high-pressure, revenue-chasing system led by the US, where demand sustains hiring despite supply shocks.
• 2.US hiring softened but has not reached retrenchment, supporting a higher-for-longer interest rate path.
• 3.Regional growth divergence is widening due to AI capital expenditure, geopolitical volatility in the Strait of Hormuz, and climate factors like El Niño.

Table of Contents

• Growth under pressure?
• United States
• Euro Area
• China
• Global LIs
• Economic forecasts and central bank watch

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