This report details current market-implied policy rate paths for the Riksbank, Norges Bank, and G10 central banks as of late May 2026. It highlights that markets are pricing in more aggressive rate hikes than SEB currently forecasts for several major central banks.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Market pricing for the Riksbank is significantly more hawkish than SEB forecasts, with the market pricing a rate of 2.02% by December 2026 compared to SEB's forecast of 1.75%.
- 2.Norges Bank market pricing suggests a peak policy rate of 4.55% in late 2026, slightly above SEB's year-end forecast of 4.50%.
- 3.Across the G10, the RBNZ and ECB show the highest priced-in cumulative rate changes by the end of 2026, with 77bps and 62bps respectively.
Table of Contents
- The Riksbank:
- Norges Bank:
- ECB:
- G10, summary:
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Authors
Marthe Eide
Securities
Riksbank Policy RateNorges Bank Key RateECB Policy Rate
Themes
Central Bank Policy NormalizationMarket vs Central Bank Forecast Divergence
Regions
EuropeNorth AmericaAsia PacificSwedenNorwayUnited States