Riksbank Minutes in Detail

SEB's analysis of the May Riksbank minutes highlights a board paralyzed by uncertainty, balancing currently low inflation against fears of a new energy-driven supply shock.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Riksbank board is currently reluctant to send strong policy signals, deliberately avoiding guidance on future rate changes due to high uncertainty.
• 2.There is a notable divide on the board regarding the 'starting point' of low inflation versus the potential for a 2022-style upside surprise in inflation from supply shocks.
• 3.SEB maintains its forecast that the policy rate will remain unchanged at 1.75% until the end of 2027, despite some hawkish signals from board members like Anna Seim.

Table of Contents

• Slightly hawkish, high uncertainty and fears of a repeat of 2022
• As usual, we have ranked the individual Board members on our dove-hawk scale.
• Hjelm (1)
• Bunge (2)
• Jansson (3)
• Thedéen (4)
• Seim (5)
• Dove-hawk ranking

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