Technical Views: Currencies, Commodities & 10Y Yield

The report provides a technical analysis of currency pairs, commodities, and government bond yields, highlighting a bullish outlook for the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Markets are currently observed at pivotal technical junctions, with various assets showing signs of recovery or consolidation following significant trends.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The US dollar exhibits positive momentum, with technical breakouts suggesting a shift into a sustained recovery phase.
• 2.US Treasury yields show significant technical breakouts across the 2, 5, and 10-year maturities, signaling potential further upside.
• 3.Commodities are showing signs of tactical stabilization and relief rallies, though broader momentum for metals like Gold and Silver remains weak.

Table of Contents

• Technical backdrop increasingly supportive of a stronger US dollar and higher yields
• PTS Technical Views: Currencies, commodities, bonds
• Forex: Major Pairs
• DXY (LT): Indicators turning constructive, recovery in progress
• DXY (ST): Positive breakout, scenario evolving into retest phase
• EUR/USD (MT): Stabilization below 1.2020
• EUR/USD (ST): Attempting to stabilise at the lower band of its range
• USD/CHF (MT): Tentative signs of momentum shift
• USD/CHF (ST): A bullish “golden cross”
• GBP/USD (LT): Momentum is fading
• GBP/USD (ST): 200-day SMA has become a resistance
• USD/JPY (MT): Back at key resistance area 160–162
• USD/JPY (ST): Dips becoming increasingly short-lived
• USD/CNH (ST): Initial recovery signal with 6.83 in focus. Then, 6.91
• Forex: Minor Pairs
• EUR/CHF (LT): Downtrend intact, but recovery signals emerging
• EUR/CHF (ST): Is the pair forming a bullish “cup & handle”?
• EUR/GBP (ST): Trend breakdown shifts focus to 0.8471. Oversold bounce may occur
• AUD/USD (MT): consolidation reaches first support
• USD/CAD (MT): Impulsive structure pointing to late-cycle extension
• USD/CAD (ST): Rebound evolving into broader recovery, but near-term consolidation
• Commodities
• WTI crude oil (ST): Rebounding from selloff
• Gold (ST): Attempting to form a bottom
• Silver (ST): Bullish divergence suggests relief rally potential
• Copper (MT): Former resistance acting as a support
• Govt. Bond Yields
• US 10-Year Treasury Yield (MT): Breakout attempt
• US 5-Year Treasury Yield (ST): Positive momentum resumes
• US 2-Year Treasury Yield (MT): Breakout confirmed!
• US 10–2 Year Treasury Yield Spread (MT): Stabilization on first support
• Germany 10-Year Yield (MT): Stabilising above 200-day SMA with 3.35% in sight
• Japan 10-year yield (ST): Exit from bullish flag may trigger a rise towards 3.28%

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