Technical Views Equity Indices

This report provides technical analysis of major global equity indices, identifying recent US market declines as a potential healthy pullback. It details key support and resistance levels for indices in North America, Europe, and Asia.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The sharp decline in US equities is interpreted as a potential healthy pullback within a prevailing bullish trend rather than a trend reversal.
• 2.European markets remain mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 showing relative strength compared to the DAX, CAC 40, and SMI which are constrained by resistance levels.
• 3.Asian indices are experiencing consolidation after hitting key reference levels, with a constructive outlook for Nikkei 225 and a more cautious one for Hang Seng.

Table of Contents

• Healthy pullback or trend reversal?
• North America
• S&P 500 (LT): The final phase of the Post-GFC bull run?
• S&P 500 (MT): Pullback underway towards 7,300
• S&P 500 (ST): Pullback towards 7,300, then potential rise to 7,750
• S&P 500 EW ratio: Bearish pressure may return near 1.14
• S&P 500 Equal Weight: Pullback towards neckline at 8,306, then potential new rise
• CBOE Volatility (ST): Recent spike may find resistance at 21-23
• Nasdaq 100 (LT): 31,500 in focus
• Nasdaq 100 (MT): Rise in progress towards 31,430
• Nasdaq 100 (ST): 28,900 key support to hold before 27,400
• Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 ratio: Despite recent drop, potential for rise to 4.20 remains
• Russell 2000 (MT): Rise in progress towards 3,317
• Russell 2000 (ST): 2,800 short-term support to hold before 2,735
• Europe
• S&P 500 vs STOXX® Europe 600 (LT): 13.90 reached; watching 15.50 next
• EURO STOXX 50® (MT): Long-term trend positive despite recent weakness
• EURO STOXX 50® (ST): Above 5,963, rise expected towards 6,400
• DAX (LT): Volatility near top continues
• DAX (ST): 25,500 almost reached, 24,458 to hold for a new rise to develop
• CAC 40 (MT): Another attempt to break key resistance
• CAC 40 (ST): Decisive move approaching
• SMI (MT): Failed to break above 13,589
• Asia & Emerging Markets
• Hang Seng (MT): Renewed weakness may lead to a drop towards 23,300
• Hang Seng Index (ST): 26,000 rejected, triggering new drop towards 24,200
• Nikkei 225 (ST): 68,200 reached, 63,500 key short-term level to monitor