PTS Technical Views Equity Indices

The report evaluates the technical state of major global equity indices, noting a transition from concentrated leadership to broader participation in US markets and significant technical breakouts across European indices.

Key Takeaways

• 1.S&P 500 market breadth is improving, indicating a move toward broader participation rather than narrow leadership by mega-cap stocks.
• 2.US Nasdaq 100 is in an extended move with upside targets, but indicators suggest potential fatigue as the rally matures.
• 3.European indices, specifically the Euro Stoxx 50, have confirmed a technical breakout, supporting further medium-term upside.

Table of Contents

• Broadening participation offset by emerging momentum fatigue in Mag 7
• PTS Technical Views: Equity indices*
• North America
• S&P 500 (LT): The final phase of the Post-GFC bull run?
• S&P 500 (MT): Breakout confirms ongoing impulsive phase
• S&P 500 (ST): Volatility near ATH
• S&P 500 Breadth: Broadening Participation Despite Index Volatility
• S&P 500 ex-Mag 7
• S&P 500 Equal Weight: A breakout, re-test and move higher
• S&P 500 EW ratio: relief rally hit resistance; focus on whether a higher high can form
• CBOE Volatility (ST): Below resistance at 21–23
• Nasdaq 100 (LT): 31,500 in focus
• Nasdaq 100 (MT): Extension phase with emerging fatigue
• Nasdaq 100 (ST): Testing first support
• Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 ratio: Focus on 4.20 resistance
• Russell 2000 (MT): Rise in progress towards 3,317
• Russell 2000 (ST): momentum may push price above classic wave-5 target
• Europe
• S&P 500 vs STOXX® Europe 600 (LT): 13.90 reached; watching 15.50 next
• EURO STOXX 50® (MT): Long-term trend positive despite recent volatility
• EURO STOXX 50® (ST): Resistance bypassed
• DAX (LT): Volatility near top continues
• DAX (ST): Support held, new attempt to move higher
• CAC 40 (MT): Another attempt to break key resistance
• CAC 40 (ST): Breakout and re-test
• SMI (MT): New all-time high
• Asia & Emerging Markets
• Hang Seng (MT): Pullback underway; focus on 22,990 as potential support
• Hang Seng Index (ST): Breakdown below key support, testing trend floor
• Nikkei 225 (ST): New high paves way for extended wave 5 target at 79,126

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