US Macro Strategy FOMC Recap

The June 2026 FOMC meeting signaled a hawkish shift under Chair Warsh, characterized by a sudden removal of forward guidance and a hawkish revision to the dot plot. This shift has prompted a repricing of rate expectations and a return to higher volatility in Treasury markets.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Fed, under Chair Warsh, has abandoned forward guidance and introduced significant communication changes, increasing market volatility.
• 2.The June FOMC meeting resulted in a hawkish shift in the SEP dot plot, causing a sharp selloff in front-end US Treasuries.
• 3.MUFG has pushed back its expectation for the start of Fed rate cuts to December 2026/early 2027.

Table of Contents

• Goodbye forward guidance, hello task forces (and vol)
• Summary
• FOMC Statement (Hawkish)
• SEP Forecasts (Hawkish)
• Market Thoughts – Vol risks return...
• Forecasts and Conclusion

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