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MUFG

June 22, 2026

Tug Of War For Asia Currencies

FX StrategyFXRates Govt BondsInformation Technology

This report outlines the evolving drivers for Asian currencies, emphasizing the shift toward growth differentials and risk sentiment over traditional yield-based analysis. Despite Fed uncertainty, the author maintains a constructive outlook for Asian currencies supported by regional growth.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Drivers for Asia FX are shifting from pure yield differentials to growth differentials and risk sentiment.
  • 2.Asian currencies are expected to be supported by better growth differentials with the US, particularly in AI electronic exporting nations.
  • 3.Uncertainty persists regarding Indonesian fiscal policy following a major corruption investigation into electric motorcycle procurement.

Table of Contents

  • Market Highlights
  • CHART 1: BEYOND YIELD DIFFERENTIALS, GROWTH DIFFERENTIALS AND RISK SENTIMENT ARE KEY DRIVERS OF ASIA FX
  • Ahead Today

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Authors

Michael Wan

Securities

USDIDR

Themes

Fed Policy NormalizationGrowth Differentials

Regions

Asia PacificIndonesiaSouth KoreaTaiwan