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MUFG

July 15, 2026

FX Daily Snapshot

Daily UpdateCommoditiesFXRates Govt BondsEnergyOther

The US dollar faces depreciation pressure following a weaker-than-expected CPI print that reduced expectations for imminent Fed hikes. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada remains cautious, keeping the CAD outlook modest despite energy price support.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Weaker-than-expected US CPI data has reduced the near-term probability of a Fed rate hike.
  • 2.Fed Chair Warsh's firm communication style and focus on the 2% inflation mandate are curbing expectations for dollar weakness despite lower CPI.
  • 3.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces downside risks as the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to remain patient given mixed macro data, despite energy price support.

Table of Contents

  • US dollar's key pillar of support is weakened
  • USD: Pressure eases notably on the Fed to hike
  • CAD: BoC on hold with inflation risks more contained
  • KEY RELEASES AND EVENTS

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Authors

Derek Halpenny

Securities

Brent Crude OilEUR/USDUSD/CAD

Themes

Central Bank Policy DivergenceInflation Disinflation

Regions

North AmericaUnited StatesCanada