MUFG argues that the US rates market is over-priced for hikes due to subsiding inflation risks and a weakening labour market. They anticipate a potential reversal in dollar sentiment following upcoming CPI releases.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US rates market is currently over-priced for rate hikes given signs of disinflation and weaker labour market conditions.
- 2.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have caused a temporary spike in oil prices, but FX volatility remains contained.
- 3.The RBNZ raised rates by 25bps as expected, with communication indicating a moderate pace of future tightening.
Table of Contents
- USD: FOMC minutes old news
- LEVERAGED MARKET HAS TURNED VERY LONG DOLALRS VERY QUICKLY
- US DOLLAR / YIELD SPREAD CORRELATION IS STRENGTHENING AGAIN
- USD: Renewed hostilities as FX vol remains contained
- KEY RELEASES AND EVENTS
- CERTIFICATION
- LEGAL ENTITIES AND BRANCHES
- GENERAL DISCLAIMERS
- COUNTRY AND REGION SPECIFIC DISCLAIMERS
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Authors
Derek Halpenny
Securities
USDNZD
Themes
Fed Policy NormalizationGeopolitical Risk
Regions
GlobalMiddle EastUnited StatesNew ZealandIran