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MUFG

July 6, 2026

Asia FX Talk

Weekly UpdateRates Govt BondsOther

The report highlights that global markets are awaiting key US data while local Asian factors increasingly drive regional currency divergence. Monetary policy remains central, with expectations for BSP rate hikes contrasting with stable policy paths in Thailand and Taiwan.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Markets are in a holding pattern awaiting US Dollar catalysts (ISM Services, FOMC Minutes, US CPI) while being increasingly driven by local Asia factors.
  • 2.Central bank policy divergence persists in Asia, with the Philippines expected to maintain a hawkish stance while Thailand and Taiwan remain on hold.
  • 3.The BSP is forecast to hike rates two more times in 2026, reaching 5.25% by year-end.

Table of Contents

  • Market Highlights
  • Ahead Today
  • INDICATIVE RATES 3-Jul-2026
  • FOREIGN EXCHANGE
  • OTHER INDICATORS
  • Disclaimer
  • CERTIFICATION
  • LEGAL ENTITIES AND BRANCHES
  • GENERAL DISCLAIMERS
  • COUNTRY AND REGION SPECIFIC DISCLAIMERS

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Authors

Michael Wan

Securities

USDJPY

Themes

Monetary Policy Divergence

Regions

Asia PacificUnited StatesChinaThailand