US Economics Weekly

June employment data showed unexpected weakness in payroll growth, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates for the remainder of 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.June payroll growth slowed to 57k with significant downward revisions to prior months, signaling cooling labor demand.
• 2.The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold in July and for the remainder of the year due to lower inflation risks and moderated hiring.
• 3.Financial conditions have tightened by 39bp since February 28, primarily driven by U.S. dollar appreciation and higher 10-year Treasury yields.

Table of Contents

• Key Takeaways
• Oil Tracker: US ending stocks of crude oil edge lower amid increased exports and unchanged production
• Financial Conditions: Moderately more restrictive than pre-conflict levels
• The effective tariff rate, tariff receipts and refunds
• 2Q GDP tracking trimmed 0.5pt to 2.0%
• Data review & preview
• US economic outlook
• US Outlook Scenarios
• Disclosure Section

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial