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Morgan Stanley

July 12, 2026

Private Credit Pressures Contained, Not Resolved

Macro ThematicRates CreditInformation Technology

Private credit pressures have eased since Q1 2026, with improved market access for BDCs and contained solvency risks. However, underlying fundamental deterioration and software-sector vulnerabilities linked to AI disruption persist.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Private credit risks remain significant but are contained and not systemic.
  • 2.Market access for BDCs has improved, and liquidity stress is not translating into widespread solvency risk.
  • 3.Software loans in private credit show increased vulnerability due to AI-driven disruption, with refinancing pressure likely to be the primary catalyst for defaults.

Table of Contents

  • Private Credit: Pressures Contained, Not Resolved
  • Private Credit Pressures Subside but Persist
  • What I'm Reading This Week
  • What We Are Watching This Week

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