Morgan Stanley
July 7, 2026
Defense Spending – Shifting Into a Higher Gear
Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsIndustrials
Asia's defense spending is accelerating significantly, with projections suggesting it could reach US$1.2 trillion as governments increase budgets to address geopolitical tensions. This trend acts as a major driver for an ongoing industrial and capital expenditure super-cycle in the region.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Asia's defense spending CAGR increased to 6.6% over 2022-26, reaching approximately US$700bn in 2026.
- 2.Policy makers are committing to higher defense spending as a % of GDP, with potential for total spending to reach US$1.2 trillion.
- 3.Increased defense spending is a key pillar of Asia's industrial and capex super-cycle.
Table of Contents
- Why defense spending has inflected higher
- Two reasons why defense spending is rising
- Outlook and implications
- Will there be challenges to accelerating defense spending?
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Authors
Chetan AhyaDerrick Y KamJonathan CheungKelly WangSudhanshu Agarwal
Themes
Capex Super-CycleDefense Spending to GDP accelerationGeopolitical tensions
Regions
Asia PacificChinaIndiaJapan
