Morgan Stanley
Report published May 18, 2026
MS Capex Tracker: Stronger and Broader Capex Trends Exiting Q1 2026
Morgan Stanley · May 18, 2026
Morgan Stanley's Capex Tracker shows US NTM capex plans accelerating to +38% YoY post-Q1 earnings, indicating a broad-based capex upcycle.
Read the remaining 4 pages
Finvaulta summarizes Morgan Stanley's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US Next-Twelve-Months (NTM) capex plans have accelerated to +38% YoY following Q1 earnings, well above the 20% growth rate seen at the start of 2026.
- 2.Capex strength is broadening, with 14 of 16 tracked verticals calling for growth acceleration, supporting the thesis for an extended US capex upcycle.
- 3.US Capital Goods intentions show a 'V-shaped' recovery (+19% YoY) as companies relocate production to the US to mitigate tariffs and rising logistics costs.
Table of Contents
- MS Capex Tracker
- Turning to the respective end markets
- The Attractive view on US Industrials
- STOCK RATINGS
- Global Stock Ratings Distribution
- Analyst Stock Ratings
- Analyst Industry Views
Report data
Exhibit 1: MS Capex Tracker: US NTM Capex plans have further accelerated post 1Q EPS and is now tracking +38% YoY
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| MS Capex Tracker NTM Capex Growth | 38% | Post-Q1 EPS acceleration from ~20%. |
| Hyperscaler Capex Growth | 126% | Leading vertical in the tracker. |
| US Reshoring Thesis Value | 10 Trillion USD | Total value proposition of reshoring industrials. |
Access the full report
And others from the leading tier 1 banks.
Free account: read previews and a daily allowance of full reports. Pro removes the daily limit.
Authors / Editors
Christopher Snyder, CFA · Equity AnalystBrandon Knutson · Equity AnalystToby Okwara · Equity AnalystChristine Yao · Research Associate