Global Economic Briefing: North America Trade From Rules to Discretion From Autos to AI

North American trade is being transformed by a transition to discretionary US industrial policy and a surge in demand for AI-linked imports. This reconfiguration creates asymmetric outcomes, favoring Mexico while positioning trade as a potential source of disinflation for the US.

Key Takeaways

• 1.North American trade is shifting from rules-based frameworks to discretionary, sector-specific industrial policy.
• 2.US import demand is increasingly concentrated in AI-linked sectors (electronics, semiconductors), benefiting Mexico over Canada.
• 3.Trade is shifting from an inflation headwind to a modest tailwind, supporting the case for Fed easing into 2027.

Table of Contents

• Global Economic Briefing | North America
• The Weekly Worldview: North America Trade: From Rules to Discretion, from Autos to AI
• AlphaWise
• Country Macroeconomic Data
• Selected Global Economics Research
• Disclosure Section
• Global Research Conflict Management Policy
• Important Disclosures