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Morgan Stanley

June 23, 2026

Humanoids The Tide is Rising Lifting 2026 Forecast

Sector ReportEquitiesIndustrials

Morgan Stanley increases China humanoid shipment forecasts for 2026 based on faster-than-expected commercial verification and supply chain readiness. They highlight key beneficiaries in the value chain like Leaderdrive.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Raised 2026 China humanoid shipment forecast to 50k units, up from 28k.
  • 2.Commercialization is accelerating in China with government and SOE support.
  • 3.Leaderdrive is a preferred pick due to market-leading position in harmonic reducers.

Table of Contents

  • Humanoids: The Tide is Rising, Lifting 2026 Forecast
  • Our Latest Humanoid Volume Forecast
  • China Humanoid Market Forecast
  • China Humanoid Value Chain
  • Leaderdrive (688017.SS), Raising PT to Rmb464; Reiterate OW
  • Leaderdrive: Financial Summary
  • Valuation Methodology and Risks
  • Disclosure Section
  • Analyst Certification
  • Global Research Conflict Management Policy
  • Important Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies
  • STOCK RATINGS
  • Global Stock Ratings Distribution

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Authors

Sheng ZhongCarlos ChaiChelsea Wang

Securities

688017-CN601100.SS

Themes

Humanoid Robotics CommercializationSupply Chain Expansion

Regions

Asia PacificChina