Global Economic Briefing: Remember Tariffs

The US tariff regime is shifting to a permanent Section 301/232 framework, lowering legal uncertainty while maintaining a statutory tariff floor of 9-10%. While this provides stability for corporate capital planning, broad reshoring remains elusive as investment stays concentrated in AI and specific strategic sectors.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The US tariff regime is pivoting from temporary emergency powers (IEEPA/Section 122) to a more durable, rules-based framework under Section 301 and Section 232.
• 2.The statutory effective tariff rate is expected to settle around 9-10%, with reduced dispersion among trading partners compared to the earlier IEEPA regime.
• 3.Lower policy uncertainty is expected to support capex at the margin, but there is still little evidence of broad-based manufacturing reshoring.

Table of Contents

• Key Takeaways
• Towards a Tariff Equilibrium
• The Tariff Diaries
• Rapid-Fire FAQ
• What Is the Effective Tariff Rate?
• Section 301: The Baseline Tariff Stabilizer
• Section 232: Metals, Pharma, and Medical Equipment
• Refunds: Fast but Partial
• Macro Implications: Capex Over Consumption but Reshoring Still Elusive
• Disclosure Section

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