European Economics Weekly

Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast for an ECB rate hold in July followed by a hike in September. The decision hinges on energy prices, growth signals from PMIs, and core inflation trajectories.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Morgan Stanley expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to hold rates in July but deliver a second and final hike in September.
• 2.Three primary conditions for a potential ECB hold in September are lower medium-term oil prices, subdued PMI growth, and downside surprises in core inflation.

Table of Contents

• Assessing the Case for a September Hike
• This week in Europe: The pre-conditions for a September hike
• Latest research | In case you missed it
• Next Week: PMIs, Consumer Surveys
• Calendar
• Connect with us

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