Chipflation Navigating A Memory Crisis

The report analyzes how AI infrastructure demand is creating structural memory shortages ('Chipflation'), forcing a shift in global supply toward AI and away from consumer hardware.

Key Takeaways

• 1.AI infrastructure is causing a structural bottleneck in memory (HBM, DRAM, SSD) supply, turning memory into a critical and rationed input.
• 2.Memory price inflation ('Chipflation') is spreading from Big Tech to the broader hardware sector, creating margin pressure for OEMs with less pricing power.
• 3.Long-term agreements (LTAs) and AI prioritization are creating a two-tier market where non-AI buyers face supply shortages and volatility.

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Memory – A Multi-Year Bottleneck
• HBM Cannibalization and the Two-Tier Market
• Chipflation Passthrough and Sector Impact
• Chips, Growth and Inflation – A Macro Perspective
• US/China Policy Options Don't Offer Near-term Relief
• Primer: Memory 101 – Types, Market Structure and the Cycle
• Appendix: Memory Demand per Gigawatt of AI Data Center Deployment