Week Ahead Rangebound Into June

The US dollar remains rangebound between 99 and 99.5 as Middle East geopolitical risks overshadow upcoming Eurozone inflation and US/Canada jobs data. Monex expects a quiet start to June for the buck, with central banks like the NBP and Riksbank likely maintaining a cautious pause.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, specifically disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, are overshadowing macroeconomic fundamentals and keeping the US dollar rangebound.
• 2.Eurozone inflation is expected to undershoot consensus at 3.1% YoY for May, but the ECB is still likely to proceed with a rate cut while remaining cautious about underlying price pressures.
• 3.The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to keep rates on hold at 3.75%, as the 'energy shock' from Middle East tensions has effectively closed the window for near-term easing.

Table of Contents

• INTRODUCTION
• ECONOMIC CALENDAR
• DATA PREVIEWS
• Eurozone CPI preview: Inflation below consensus, still potentially unpleasant
• NBP preview: The energy shock closes the easing window
• Sweden CPI preview: Understanding the Riksbank's dilemma
• Swiss CPI preview: The franc is likely to stay stuck
• Canada jobs preview: Some BoC relief, possibly
• US jobs preview: Payrolls in the shadow of the Hormuz shock
• General disclosure
• Market specific disclosures

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