Monex Europe Financial Research Hub

Monex Europe’s recent analysis emphasizes a global landscape dominated by geopolitical instability and high energy-driven inflation, with oil prices notably exceeding triple digits. The institution highlights significant political risks in the UK, where a potential leadership challenge to PM Keir Starmer and local election results are expected to weigh heavily on Sterling despite positive macro data. On monetary policy, the reports project a hawkish 50bps ECB hike in June to support the Euro, while simultaneously warning that market expectations for rate hikes from the Bank of England and Bank of Canada are overextended. Economic indicators for the Eurozone and UK, specifically upcoming PMIs, are anticipated to reveal that recent manufacturing gains were merely temporary effects of supply-chain hedging rather than structural growth. Beyond the G7, Monex monitors shifting risk premiums in the Hungarian Forint due to local political changes and a potential policy pivot by the Bank of Japan driven by rising headline inflation. Ultimately, while US-Iran ceasefire frameworks offer a theoretical path to normalization, immediate market volatility remains the primary driver of the research direction.