Macro Weekly

Mizuho Securities forecasts a terminal policy rate of 1.00% for the BOJ, expecting a moderate economic expansion in Japan despite cooling inflation and export headwinds.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Mizuho projects a terminal BOJ policy rate of 1.00%, with the next hike likely occurring in the July 2026 meeting.
• 2.The Japanese economy is expected to remain in moderate expansion, driven by income improvements and capital investment for automation.
• 3.Core-core CPI is expected to hover around 2% through FY2025 before dropping to the 1.5-1.9% range as goods inflation cools.

Table of Contents

• Global economy and finance: Weekly watch (2 February)
• Review of key indicators and events
• Economic indicators
• BOJ-related events
• Economic outlook (as of 2 February)
• Comments on real GDP outlook
• Comments on CPI outlook
• Comments on domestic rates outlook

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