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Mizuho Securities

July 6, 2026

Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch

Weekly UpdateFXMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsOther

Mizuho’s Macro Weekly outlines a gradual BOJ rate hike path to 1.5% by mid-2027, supported by strong Tankan business sentiment, while tempering inflation concerns following the US-Iran framework agreement.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The BOJ is expected to raise the policy rate to 1.25% by December 2026 and 1.50% by June 2027.
  • 2.June BOJ Tankan survey showed strong sentiment, with large manufacturers' DI at +22 and large nonmanufacturers at +37, the highest since 1991.

Table of Contents

  • Review of key indicators and events
  • Economic indicators
  • BOJ-related events
  • Economic outlook (as of 6 July)
  • Comments on real GDP outlook
  • Comments on CPI outlook
  • Comments on domestic rates outlook
  • Important Disclosure Information
  • Analyst Certification
  • Disclaimer

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Authors

Yusuke MatsuoShintaro InagakiYasuhisa IrieRyosuke KatagiShota Amano

Securities

USDJPY10y JGB

Themes

BoJ Monetary Policy NormalizationMiddle East Geopolitics and InflationSemiconductor Demand

Regions

Asia PacificMiddle EastJapanUnited StatesIran