Mizuho Securities
July 6, 2026
Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch
Weekly UpdateFXMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsOther
Mizuho’s Macro Weekly outlines a gradual BOJ rate hike path to 1.5% by mid-2027, supported by strong Tankan business sentiment, while tempering inflation concerns following the US-Iran framework agreement.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The BOJ is expected to raise the policy rate to 1.25% by December 2026 and 1.50% by June 2027.
- 2.June BOJ Tankan survey showed strong sentiment, with large manufacturers' DI at +22 and large nonmanufacturers at +37, the highest since 1991.
Table of Contents
- Review of key indicators and events
- Economic indicators
- BOJ-related events
- Economic outlook (as of 6 July)
- Comments on real GDP outlook
- Comments on CPI outlook
- Comments on domestic rates outlook
- Important Disclosure Information
- Analyst Certification
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Yusuke MatsuoShintaro InagakiYasuhisa IrieRyosuke KatagiShota Amano
Securities
USDJPY10y JGB
Themes
BoJ Monetary Policy NormalizationMiddle East Geopolitics and InflationSemiconductor Demand
Regions
Asia PacificMiddle EastJapanUnited StatesIran
