Mizuho Securities anticipates support for the upcoming 10y JGB auction at yields near 2.5%, as market participants have largely factored in BOJ normalization and stabilized volatility.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The upcoming 10y JGB auction (JPY 2.6 trillion reopening of JB382) is expected to find support at yield levels near 2.5%.
- 2.Markets have already priced in a high probability (>70%) of a June BOJ rate hike, limiting further yield upside.
- 3.Geopolitical risks stemming from the Iran war and associated energy inflation remain the primary negative factors for demand.
Table of Contents
- (1) Positives and negatives ahead of the 10y auction
- POTENTIAL POSITIVES
- POTENTIAL NEGATIVES
- (2) Auction strategy
- CONSIDER OUTRIGHT LONGS AND/OR ASSET SWAPS
- (3) Key charts
- Important Disclosure Information
- Analyst Certification
- Disclaimer
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports with a 14-day free trial.
Authors
Noriatsu Tanji
Securities
10y JGB JB382JPY OIS
Themes
Monetary Policy NormalizationGeopolitical Inflation Risks
Regions
Asia PacificMiddle EastNorth AmericaJapanUnited StatesIran
Related Reports
30y JGB Auction Preview
Jun 12, 2026
Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account Surplus to Fund Consumption Tax Cut
Jun 12, 2026
BOJ Expected To Hike At June Meeting
Jun 11, 2026
Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account Surplus to Fund Consumption Tax Cut, FILP Bonds for Increased Defense Spending
Jun 11, 2026
30y JGB Auction Preview
Jun 11, 2026