A comprehensive data pack analyzing G10 FX performance, rate differentials, and market positioning for June 2026, noting a temporary resurgence in the USD.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US Dollar has seen a recent 'renaissance' due to AI trade growth and potential Iran conflict resolution, though its long-term structural outlook remains negative.
- 2.Japanese Ministry of Finance intervention to support the Yen was sizeable (JPY11.73trn) but proved only fleetingly effective as policy settings remain JPY negative.
- 3.Sterling (GBP) momentum has been slowed by the Iran conflict, but UK manufacturing activity is quickening despite a weak labor market.
Table of Contents
- Talking Points
- Performance
- Rate Differentials
- Forwards
- FX Volatility
- Risk Reversals
- Seasonals
- Correlations
- Positioning
- OIS Pricing
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Authors
Nicholas KennedySam Hill
Securities
EURUSDUSDJPYXAUBTC
Themes
US Exceptionalism and the AI TradeGeopolitical Impact (Iran Conflict)Monetary Policy Divergence
Regions
North AmericaEuropeAsia PacificUnited StatesJapanUnited Kingdom