BoE MPC Preview

Lloyds anticipates the Bank of England will hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% in June while expecting a shift toward a 7-2 vote split favoring further tightening. Despite hawkish communication, current economic data suggest the case for immediate action remains weak.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Bank of England is expected to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75% at the June 18th meeting.
• 2.Dissent within the MPC is expected to widen, with Megan Greene likely joining Huw Pill in voting for a 25bp rate hike.
• 3.Recent economic data, including slowing GDP and easing labor market conditions, support holding rates steady despite hawkish rhetoric.

Table of Contents

• BoE MPC preview (June-26): Talking hawkish, acting cautious
• MPC to leave Bank Rate at 3.75%, but division to widen
• Data provide little impetus to act
• Rhetoric turns more hawkish, but caution prevails
• Vote split widens, not the policy stance

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