Think Ahead: Green Shoots or Just Weeds?

ING analyzes global economic data, identifying narrow job growth in the US versus genuine recovery signals in Germany's defense sector and cooling UK inflation.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US labor market strength is deceptively narrow, with growth concentrated almost exclusively in private healthcare and hospitality while other sectors shed workers.
• 2.Germany is showing genuine signs of recovery driven by increased local defense spending and a rising multiplier effect on industrial growth.
• 3.UK inflation is projected to drop significantly, with headline CPI potentially reaching 1.8% by April, opening the door for Bank of England rate cuts.

Table of Contents

• Sorting the green shoots from the weeds
• Healthcare and hospitality accounted for all the jobs growth in 2025
• THINK Ahead in developed markets
• THINK Ahead in Central and Eastern Europe
• Key events in developed markets next week
• Key events in EMEA next week

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