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February 16, 2026

The Commodities Feed: US-Iran Talks

Market ReportCommoditiesConsumer StaplesEnergy

Geopolitical risk premiums persist in the oil market ahead of US-Iran talks, while agricultural prices face downward pressure from increased Indian wheat exports.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Oil prices remain supported by geopolitical risk premiums ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva.
  • 2.Potential US rollback of aluminum tariffs on derivatives is unlikely to ease physical market tightness as primary metal levies remain.
  • 3.Wheat prices are under pressure following India's decision to allow controlled exports and improved crop estimates elsewhere.

Table of Contents

  • Energy – Some OPEC+ members keen to increase output
  • Metals – US aluminium tariff rollback talk brings little relief
  • Agriculture – Wheat falls on bumper output estimates
  • Author
  • Disclaimer

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Authors

Warren PattersonEwa Manthey

Securities

ICE BrentLondon CocoaCBOT Wheat

Themes

Geopolitical Supply RisksOPEC+ Policy DivergenceTrade Protectionism and Tariffs

Regions

Middle EastNorth AmericaEuropeUnited StatesIranIndia