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May 22, 2026

The Commodities Feed: Iran Uncertainty and Oil Prices

Daily UpdateCommoditiesEnergyMaterials

Oil prices are experiencing high volatility due to conflicting signals from US-Iran deal negotiations, while Brazil forecasts record coffee production for the 2026/27 season.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Uncertainty regarding a US-Iran nuclear deal is driving extreme volatility in oil prices, with market focus on uranium enrichment and Strait of Hormuz tolls.
  • 2.China's refined copper production increased by 3% YoY in April, supported by high sulfuric acid prices boosting smelter margins.
  • 3.Brazil's 2026/27 coffee production is expected to reach record levels of 66.7m bags due to favorable weather improving yields.

Table of Contents

  • Energy - Oil focus remains on US-Iran negotiations
  • Metals – China’s refined copper output grows
  • Agriculture – Brazil arabica coffee output estimates revised higher
  • Author
  • Disclaimer

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Authors

Warren PattersonEwa Manthey

Securities

ICE BrentUS Natural Gas

Themes

Geopolitical VolatilitySupply Side Resilience

Regions

North AmericaMiddle EastAsia PacificUnited StatesIranChina