Riksbank Preview: Low Inflation Limits Hawkish Scope

The Riksbank is expected to hold rates on 17 June as low inflation prevents a hawkish pivot. ING forecasts no rate hikes for the remainder of 2026 despite current market pricing.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Riksbank is expected to keep interest rates on hold on 17 June due to muted CPIF inflation.
• 2.ING expects no rate hikes from the Riksbank in 2026, contradicting market pricing of 23bp of tightening.
• 3.The EUR/SEK pair is expected to decline in the second half of 2026, targeting 10.70 by year-end.

Table of Contents

• Inflation too low to consider hikes
• No upward revisions in projections
• Our calls for 2H26: No Riksbank hikes, EUR/SEK slow decline

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