The dollar faces downside risks as falling oil prices and the US-Iran deal shift market sentiment, making the upcoming FOMC communication from Chair Kevin Warsh a vital test.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The FOMC meeting is a critical test for USD, with the dollar's resilience increasingly dependent on Fed hike expectations.
- 2.Softer oil prices following the US-Iran peace deal introduce downside risks for the dollar.
- 3.The Riksbank is expected to hold rates at 1.75% with a neutral to mildly negative impact on SEK.
Table of Contents
- FX Daily: Kevin Warsh holds the keys to dollar resilience
- USD: Downside risks, but we expect Warsh to deliver
- EUR: Aiming for stabilisation
- SEK: Riksbank's hawkish room remains limited
- CEE: Market overshoots outpricing rate hikes
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Authors
Francesco PesoleFrantisek Taborsky
Securities
USDBrent Crude Oil
Themes
Monetary Policy Transmission
Regions
EuropeUnited StatesIranPoland
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