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May 18, 2026

Oil Rallies with US-Iran Deadlock

Daily UpdateCommoditiesMacro Economic IndicatorsEnergy

Oil prices have rallied above $110/bbl as US-Iran tensions intensify and a Russian oil waiver expires. US drilling activity is slowly responding to higher prices, while European gas markets face tightening supply and storage.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Oil prices have surged above $110/bbl due to escalating US-Iran tensions and a drone strike on a UAE nuclear plant.
  • 2.The US has allowed a waiver for Russian oil sales to expire, further tightening a market already facing supply disruptions.
  • 3.US drilling activity is showing signs of recovery with the oil rig count reaching its highest level since late 2025.

Table of Contents

  • Energy - US drilling activity picks up
  • Author
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Authors

Warren PattersonEwa Manthey

Securities

Brent CrudeICE BrentTTF Gas

Themes

Geopolitical Supply DisruptionsUS Energy Sector RecoveryEnergy Sanctions and Waivers

Regions

Middle EastEuropeAsia PacificUnited StatesIranIraq