Report published June 3, 2026
FX Daily: Dollar Support Broadens Amid Resilient US Labor Market
ING · June 3, 2026
The US dollar is rallying on strong labor data and potential Fed hike expectations, causing an unwind of 'debasement' trades in gold, bitcoin, and the Swiss franc.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.The US dollar is gaining strength on the back of upside surprises in labor market data, specifically JOLTS, which is prompting markets to reconsider potential Fed hikes.
- 2.The popular 'dollar debasement trade'—involving gold, bitcoin, and the Swiss franc—is under pressure and being unwound as a more hawkish Fed outlook emerges.
- 3.ECB hawkishness, with 50bp of hikes priced in through September, is providing a floor for the Euro despite rising US yields.
Table of Contents
- USD: De-basement trade under pressure
- EUR: Hawkish ECB to protect the euro's downside
- CHF: Coming under some pressure?
- CEE: Hawks and doves take turns
Report data
Strong US data is lifting the dollar and keeping Fed hike expectations alive
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Poland Interest Rate | 3.75% | The National Bank of Poland left rates unchanged. |
| ECB Rate Hike Pricing | 25 basis points | Fully priced in by market. |
| US Oil Inventory Drawdown | 3.3 million barrels | Consensus expectation for decline. |
| Eurozone April PPI | 5% | Expected to surge YoY. |
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