ING Bank N.V. Research Hub

ING Bank’s research highlights a global macroeconomic environment defined by the tension between robust export growth and persistent energy-driven inflationary pressures across Europe and Asia. In Central and Eastern Europe, the bank emphasizes that economic resilience to energy shocks is increasingly dependent on policy capacity—specifically fiscal room and monetary flexibility—rather than simple energy import volumes. While the Czech Republic is positioned as a regional benchmark for stability, countries like Turkey and Hungary are navigating more difficult trade-offs as central banks adopt hawkish stances to combat resurfacing inflation risks. Parallel trends are observed in Asia, where a semiconductor and AI-driven export boom in South Korea is being weighed against imported energy costs that threaten inflation targets in Taiwan. Regarding monetary policy, ING notes a significant reprieve in Poland, where easing CPI to 3.1% is expected to keep the Monetary Policy Council on a wait-and-see path with stable interest rates through 2026. Collectively, the research suggests a strategic shift by governments toward targeted energy investments and cautious monetary management to maintain stability amidst structural global shifts.