CEEMEA Energy Shock: Who Breaks, Who Bends?

The 2026 energy shock, triggered by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, acts as a macro stress test for CEEMEA economies, favoring those with institutional credibility and EU funding access over those with high energy dependence.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The 2026 energy shock is a policy-capacity story rather than just energy dependence; institutional strength and fiscal headroom are the main differentiators.
• 2.The Czech Republic is the most resilient to the stagflationary shock, while Turkey remains the most exposed due to high hydrocarbon dependence and inflation.
• 3.Monetary easing is largely off the table in CEE as central banks pivot to a 'wait-and-see' or hawkish stance to defend credibility against supply-side inflation.

Table of Contents

• Summary
• Country summaries: CEE3
• Country summaries: Other Central & Eastern Europe
• Country summaries: CIS
• ING main macroeconomic and financial forecasts
• ING EM FX and local rates views summary
• Energy shock 2.0 – who breaks, who bends in Central and Eastern Europe
• CEE FX, rates and debt strategy
• FX: CEE resilient for now, but downside risks building
• Rates: Curves reflect inflation fears and uncertainty supporting RV trades in region
• Local currency debt: Diverging bond dynamics across CEE amid fiscal strain
• Hard currency sovereign debt: Remarkable resilience
• Countries

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