Slowly Easing Inflation Outlook Supports Gradual Pickup In Dutch Growth

The Dutch economy is expected to see a gradual reacceleration in GDP growth to 1.3% in 2027 as inflation expectations stabilize. Economic resilience is supported by wage growth and consumption, despite ongoing challenges related to labor shortages and political fiscal uncertainty.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Dutch GDP growth is projected to reaccelerate to 1.3% in 2027 following a moderation to 1.2% in 2026.
• 2.Inflation expectations have improved due to more favourable energy price assumptions, though the path remains uneven.
• 3.Labour market tightness is easing slightly, but persistent shortages continue to impact business activity.

Table of Contents

• Inflation outlook stabilises, but remains uneven
• Household income supports consumption despite caution
• Public spending supports growth, with policy uncertainty ahead
• Investment outlook improves gradually amid structural constraints
• External environment remains mixed, but improves
• Labour market easing slightly

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