Gold’s Correction Prompts a Forecast Reset

ING has lowered its price forecasts for gold and silver, citing higher Treasury yields, a strong US dollar, and softening investor ETF demand. Despite these near-term headwinds, the firm maintains that the structural drivers for precious metals remain intact.

Key Takeaways

• 1.ING has lowered its gold price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2026 due to stronger-than-expected headwinds from higher yields, a firm dollar, and weaker investor demand.
• 2.Central bank gold buying remains a robust structural support factor despite cyclical market corrections.
• 3.Silver price forecasts have also been downgraded, though the metal is expected to modestly outperform gold due to industrial deficits.

Table of Contents

• Gold struggles despite geopolitical tensions
• We are lowering our forecasts
• Markets have repriced the interest rate outlook
• ETF demand has weakened
• Gold ETF buying slows
• Central banks continue to provide support
• Central banks expect higher gold holdings
• The longer-term story remains intact
• Silver's outlook has also weakened

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