The report highlights a structural shift in global currency markets driven by US economic resilience and a more hawkish Fed stance. It recommends capitalizing on USD strength through a new long USD-NOK trade idea.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The shifting Fed narrative, driven by US economic resilience rather than a stagflation trade-off, acts as a bullish game-changer for the USD.
- 2.New trade idea initiated to buy USD-NOK at 9.6876, targeting 10.1000 with a stop at 9.5500.
- 3.The report anticipates further USD gains against EUR and GBP, while NOK and CAD face additional exposure from lower oil prices.
Table of Contents
- USD: From range to rally
- Open a trade idea to buy USD-NOK @ 9.6876, target of 10.1000 stop at 9.5500
- Disclaimer & Disclosures
- Summary of tactical views
- New trade idea
- USD – bullish momentum
- EUR – no help from hikes
- GBP – Dragged down
- JPY – No magic number
- NOK – Knocked out
- SEK – Time to shine
- AUD – Sunstruck
- NZD – Swept up
- CAD – a slower rise ahead
- CHF – Unspectacular
- Appendix 1: 12-month G10 trade ideas history
- Appendix 2: Summary charts
- Appendix 3: Guide to metrics used in currency charts
- Appendix 4: FX vs rates
- Disclosure appendix
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Authors
Daragh MaherPaul MackelNick AndrewsTom WookeyJoey Chew
Securities
USD-NOK
Themes
Fed HawkishnessGeopolitical De-escalationUS Exceptionalism
Regions
GlobalEuropeMiddle EastUnited StatesUKJapan