GEMs In The Week: How Far Can Rates Follow Oil

The report examines the impact of declining oil prices on Emerging Market (EM) monetary policy expectations, finding uneven adjustments across countries. Brazil and South Africa are identified as having the most potential for further dovish repricing.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Lower oil prices are helping unwind hawkish monetary policy repricing across many EM markets.
• 2.Brazil and South Africa show the most room for further rate expectation declines based on residual analysis.
• 3.EM equities underperformed DM peers this week due to a stronger dollar, AI concerns, and US rate expectations.

Table of Contents

• Beyond the oil move
• Disclosures & Disclaimer
• Multi-Asset Emerging Markets
• No country for bears
• EM Performance
• Equity
• Fixed Income
• FX
• EM asset class performance: Weekly and Monthly
• EM Performance: Equity
• EM Performance: Local currency debt
• EM Performance: External debt
• EM Performance: FX
• EM Relative Performance
• EM Performance: YTD total return breakdown
• Correlations
• Global Indicators
• EM Activity
• EM Inflation
• EM Monetary Policy
• Global Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions
• EM Sentiment and Positioning
• CTA positioning
• EM Valuations
• EM Earnings
• EM Carry-to-volatility ratios
• Total Financial Flows
• Monitoring Japanese Flows

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