This report provides updated probabilities for the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage based on Goldman Sachs' quantitative model. France is currently ranked as the favorite to win the tournament.
Key Takeaways
- 1.France currently holds the highest probability (32.3%) of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to the GS model.
- 2.The model utilizes Elo ratings, incorporating recent performance data and 100,000 simulations to predict tournament outcomes.
Table of Contents
- Exhibit 1: Today's Games
- Exhibit 2: The Development of the Knock-Out Phase
- Exhibit 3: France Well Ahead
- Exhibit 4: Updated Probabilities of Advancement in the 2026 World Cup
- Disclosure Appendix
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Authors
Jan HatziusGiovanni PierdomenicoSven Jari Stehn
Themes
Predictive ModelingSports Economics
Regions
GlobalFranceArgentinaSpain